Gary O`Brien - From Orangeville to Mississauga - On The Road Again: January 2010

Whether I'm in an elevator in Toronto, at a party in Orangeville, with clients in Brampton, getting a haircut at Square One, hacking away the tall grass at Shelburne Golf Course looking for an errant golf ball - everybody wants to know where is the market headed?  Is now a good time to buy?  Will prices go up or will they go down?  Is Armageddon waiting around the corner?  Should we sell off and move to the hills?  Should I order those new Pings or settle for my son's hand me downs?  Wow - so many questions, so much responsibility, so much pressure.  

Normally, like any good realtor, I can bluff my way through pretty much anything.  This time though, I think I'll play it safe and go to the authorities to see what the prognosticators say about current real estate market trends and forecasts.  For starters - lets' take a look at real estate.  Of course we'll experience peaks and valleys over time but, historically, real estate values have always appreciated over the long haul.  Short-term, nothing is ever certain, however, markets throughout Ontario are reporting strong sales with increases in Cornwall, Kingston, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Guelph, and Brantford where they posted record numbers.  In Mississauga sales volume was up 115% in December 2009 vs December 2008.   Read the full report by clicking here.  Elsewhere, in Orangeville for example, sales volume doubled during the same time period while values increased by approximately 8%.  Meanwhile, home sales across Canada reached the highest level ever for the month of December.  According to the Canadian Real Estate Association December 2009 showed an increase of 72% above activity in December 2008.  Click here to go more in depth. 

So where do we go from here?  Let's see what smarter minds than mine have to say.  The Bank of Canada sees economic growth of 2.9% in 2010 and has reiterated it's commitment to hold mortgage interest rates until the end of the second quarter of 2010.  With interest rates continuing to remain stable, "improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates".  Click here to read more on the Bank of Canada outlook.

An interesting study by ScotiaBank Group takes a look at the bigger picture with it's Global Real Estate Trends publication where it states,  "Canada still leads the pack in markets we track."  Further, the article goes on to say, "We expect housing demand will remain strong through the key spring sales season as buyers attempt to pre-empt the inevitable rise in interest rates, and improving labour markets bolster confidence.  Reduced affordability - through a combination of higher home prices and borrowing costs - will eventually cool demand, though probably not until much later in 2010."  Read the full article here.

Glad I could help clear that up.  Now, what to do about those clubs...

What a difference a decade makes.  I had someone tell me in no uncertain terms the other day there was no way they were giving their house away (exclamation point, exclamation point).  I had done an assessment that, apparently, came in considerably lower than they had expected.  Haha - true story - it does happen.  This meant huge, I mean heee-yoodge, losses on this potential seller's part.  Kinda - well not really.  It turns out the owners had been there over ten years and had paid somewhat less than the number I presented them with.  Even after maintenance & upkeep, property taxes, etc., they were still way ahead of the game.  But, human nature being what it is, their interpretation of the number I suggested versus what they'd imagined equalled a loss.  Anyways, as I drove home I started thinking about how much their property had increased during the time of ownership and wondered how the numbers stacked up across the board.  I had a decision to make - do I watch "The Bachelor" when I get home, or bring out the abacus.  The latter won and here are some very general unscientific stats I came up with.  How much difference does a decade make?

During the month of December 1999 the average price of a detached home was as follows;

Orangeville ... $186,969 (13 sales)
Dufferin (excluding Orangeville) ... $191,674 (19 sales)
Caledon (excluding Bolton) ... $416,281 (16 sales)
Brampton (W23) ... $229,187 (70 sales)
Georgetown ... $260,033 (15 sales)
Port Credit ... $273,442 (19 sales)

During the month of December 2009 the average price of a detached home was as follows;

Orangeville ... $349,014 (21 sales)
Dufferin (excluding Orangeville) ... $343,606 (16 sales)
Caledon (excluding Bolton) ... $616,382 ( 17 sales)
Brampton (W23) ... $385,350 (168 sales)
Georgetown ... $494,711 (28 sales)
Port Credit ... $638,731 (26 sales)

Interestingly, these figures tie-in nicely with some statistics recently released by NAR's (National Association of Realtors) Research Bureau which found "those who owned a home for more than 21 years typically reported a selling price of 203% more than the purchase price."  You can read the full article by Sophia Stuart, Research Economist by clicking here.   

So how does the story end?  Fortunately for us all - they were in no rush and didn't need to sell so we all lived happily ever after.  True story.

Like a scene from a postcard.  Idyllic setting in the Pine River Valley.  If apres-ski is your thing, you'll just love coming home after a day on the slopes of nearby Mansfield, Collingwood, or Hockley Valley.  Located on prestigious River Road near Hornings Mills, this wonderful home ( & Guest Cabin) has much to offer as either a great weekend spot, full-time residence, or as a studio/retreat.  Area amenities include skiing, golf, hiking, and fishing.  You'll also find many other leisurely pursuits such as a great selection of restaurants, the Dufferin Museum, the Creemore shoppes, markets, & auctions, the Bruce Trail, and a vibrant arts community with numerous studios dotted throughout the Headwaters region.  Or you can just hang around and simply enjoy the views overlooking the grounds and the pond.  Charming & eclectic bungalow with numerous updates over the years including a steel roof, windows, both baths, hydro, gas fireplace and more.  Other newer notable features include the garage, Guest Cabin, UV system, and enclosed front entry.  More pics & details on my website at www.Gary-OBrien.com.

Just sitting here at Starbucks, enjoying a little downtime between appointments, and thinking "how cool is this - messing around with this little netbook, catching up on emails, checking out different websites."  It doesn't seem that long ago when I'd sooner drive from Orangeville to pick up an offer in Toronto, than to try and figure out an antiquated facsimile machine that would invariably leave a big black line down the middle of each curled up page.  Now I'm texting with my left thumb and typing with a couple of fingers on my right, all the while navigating the streets of Toronto.  Well, not literally 'cause that's illegal don't ya know.  I'm actually cruising around on Google Street View. 

What a great tool for realtors - to help familiarize us with different neighbourhoods before we head out to show properties.  No longer will we have to bluff our way around the neighbourhood (ok - well maybe just us guys).  No more walking into the wrong house - oh yeah, I've done it.  It's also a great tool for you buyers as you'll be able to preview different areas on-line before hopping in the car to drive by that dream home - the one that happens to be located next to the wrecking yard?  (Maybe next time you'll believe me and I won't have to say I told you so.)

Generally speaking, I think they've done a pretty good job with this in the larger centres such as Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, etc., but nothing yet in the outlying areas around Georgetown, Orangeville, or Shelburne.  Hopefully they'll eventually get around to doing the backroads where it would really come in handy.  Can't wait for the 3D version.  Smile.